Are you a Business Analyst looking for your role in an Agile project? Are you looking for ways to ramp up your Agile team’s productivity? There are always a complete great deal of myths about Business Analysis in an Agile development environment, and sometimes Business Analysts think it is hard to adapt to the short iterations, just-in-time minimalist and planning documents that characterizes Agile development.
Oh, first of all, I have to describe my cheesy title. OK, I believe it is possible to get something much higher than 60%, but here’s the trick: CWGL shareholders get a 20% discount on the wine purchases from them. Through the LUK years, this discount put on both on-site tasting room purchases and wine purchased online and the Barron’s article will say shareholders get a 20% discount on wine purchased on it’s website. I never tried, so I have no idea if there are quantity or frequency limits or anything like this. Of course, they could stop you from buying bulk, but that’s OK.
During the Leucadia years, it was with an honor system; all you got to do was to say that you were a shareholder and you would’ve become the discount. What’s the return on that? 900 roughly (of course you can buy less and really get a higher yield). 50 ranges come on, I understand you guys are able it).
2,600 per yr in wines buys. 900-cost stocks that is clearly a return of 58%! If a taste is acquired by you for pricier wines or drink more, then you’re coming back would be even higher. If you bought less than a round lot, your return would too be higher. But anyway, I must say I don’t know what the volume/frequency limits are so maybe this is baloney. And if this only pertains to tasting room purchases, then only people out west can get this produce. Anyway, let’s get to the other stuff.
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One key point in the Barron’s article is that CWGL trades at 1.1x price-to-book, however they lately sold some nonstrategic possessions for 1.7x book. These evaluations are just a little tricky without knowing more; I wouldn’t take one purchase and use it to the complete, even though I would not be amazed if CWGL was worth more than the book. Comparisons to other outlined vineyards might not be so significant either as one of the big buys at CWGL happened as recently as 2011. Older vineyards may have a lower cost basis. But anyway, with Steinberg and Cumming, it might be hard to imagine that they might overpay for assets, even while a vanity play.
From that by itself, the book value might not be a bad place to start in valuing CWGL. If they didn’t overpay for assets and their accounting is conservative, then it’s probably safe to say that CWGL will probably be worth at least book. By the way, I came across a datapoint that demonstrated that in 2007 (yes back, the peak), wineries M&A were done at an average of 4.4x EV/profits.
That drifted right down to 2.7x this year 2010 and I don’t possess data after that. 195 million roughly (@8.92/talk about stock price). 440 million in three years. But again, that’s against the maximum valuation (I think that’s the top) of 4.4x income. It’s not too prudent to use ‘peak’ values (or else, again, investment banks would be worthy of 4x reserve maybe!).
More with this later as it’s not that simple. Articles I read in the NY Times (April 26, 2013: Boutique Vintners Use Private Equity for Help) struck me as highly relevant to taking a look at CWGL. I have no idea how relevant it is as I don’t have a high comfort level in evaluating vineyards. But are some of the details that I thought were interesting here. The quoted expert on vineyards is Peter S. Kaufman of Bacchus Capital, which is a private equity finance founded by Sam Bronfman II (Seagram’s founder’s grandson; Kaufman is a co-founder).